Celtic Heroes

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Some people are saying that at least the three tier mask system is less random and a few saying it is better than the old non random system, but i am not so sure.

What you can say for sure is that you can now choose the pool of colours you can be awarded so in that sense we have more control. But the chance to get any one colour is still unknown so is it less random for any single colour?

Lets assume that previously there was a list (database table) with value ranges for each hat type. Then when you handed in your flowers or presents a random number generator spat out a number. The hat whose range contained your random number is your prize. Rarity is a smaller number range. So Red hats have a big range and white have a tiny range.

Now we have the 3 tier system.

Yes you can avoid certain colours ie choose a different tier. But within the tier itself what is the chance of getting a particular colour? Obviously the chances are not equal because we are ending up with the same colours over and over again.

Disturbingly we don't even know if any single colour has the same chance to pop up or less of a chance than with the crowns or garlands. What if the number ranges for the rares and sparkles are even smaller than in the previous single tier random system? How would we know?

Only if someone gets a sample of mask drop rates for at least one tier can we say anything meaningful about drop rates.


So i think that if you are arguing against non random Hats for the next event you shouldn't use less randomness in the current system as your only argument. Really you can only say you are able to avoid certain colours.


Any mathematicians reading this semi coherent mess......be kind.
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I think it would more acceptable if at the top tier masks have equal chances like this:

blue=20%, spooky blue=5%
purple=20%, spooky purple=5%
black=20%, spooky black=5%
white=20%, spooky white=5%

But it is probably skewed like this:

blue=90%, spooky blue=1%
purple=4%, spooky purple=0.75%
black=2.5%, spooky black=0.5%
white=1%, spooky white=0.25%

I keep getting blue mask
Never get any good colour

Besides having admin give us the odds (unlikely) the only way is to turn in thousands and get an idea of the drop rates. You could apply statistical methods but a basic understanding is all you need for a feel of what is likely.

For example after getting over 1200 summer scrolls I found the odds of each tier went down by 1/3. So lowest tier 2/3 next 2/9 next 2/27 and so on.

I got a white huntsmasters helm and sold it for 100k

I think it would more acceptable if at the top tier masks have equal chances like this:

blue=20%, spooky blue=5%
purple=20%, spooky purple=5%
black=20%, spooky black=5%
white=20%, spooky white=5%

But it is probably skewed like this:

blue=90%, spooky blue=1%
purple=4%, spooky purple=0.75%
black=2.5%, spooky black=0.5%
white=1%, spooky white=0.25%

Bith times i did the quest i got purple :3

Oh yea and on the first try to

Its still very random since they have spooky, Just bring the old quest otm -.-

Its still very random since they have spooky, Just bring the old quest otm -.-

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I agree bring back the old quest type.

But the point is the recent hat quests have never been "random". OTM assigns a probability to each hat.

So the current 3 tier model gives no more guarantee of getting the rare hats (colour OR sparkle) than the old single tier model.

It just allows you to choose which common colour hat you will get over and over over and over over and over again until you SCREAM !!!

I really fail to understand why OTM insists on continuing to make these quests have a random element.
If there must be a random component, maybe the random factor could be getting the sparkly or spooky hat.

Lugh mask quest was great, no need to change what wasn't broken.