Celtic Heroes

Hello everyone.

I have a tendency to do mathematics. I want to calculate the odds of getting an encorcelled wayfarers headdress. To do that I need your help.

Please post here with:

1. number of wayfarer helms you have gotten yourself by turning in spider silks

2. number of those helms that are ensorcelled.

Thats it! once we start getting some data in I will calculate the odds of getting an ensorcelled helms...and therefore how many silks you will need to get the color of ensorcelled helm you want!

It's random! I've tried in the beltane event to get a radiant red one, but i had over 100 masks and still no red one.

Of course its random. But there will always be an average amount to buy to get ensorcelled. The mathematics dealing with randomness is called statistics.

Of course its random. But there will always be an average amount to buy to get ensorcelled. The mathematics dealing with randomness is called statistics.

You need to make many assumptions and statistical methods for reverse computing the odds given a sample size and the number of successes/failures still has uncertainty that is reduced with more data.

For mathy reading fun click here http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution

Basically its in the 1-5% range. Turning in 600ish crowns i got 8 sparkle ones. 11 white nature masks and no radiants.

However given im able to consistently under roll even the most unlucky clan mates on drops i suspect i have bugged hidden luck stat.

Collected: 2
Em scrolled: 0

Hmm ya it may be the same odds as crowns. I made a post about this in those days too and we got a pretty big sample size and I calculated it. I think it tended towards 1% but I don't remember exactly. I'll try to dig it up.

Crowns were 1.56% sparkly. So lets say 1%, that means with 500 silks you will likely get a red ensorcelled wayfarer if the odds are the same.

here is the link

http://www.celtic-heroes.com/forum/view ... statistics

I got an ensorcelled red the first time i did the quest.

Ha.

Part of the problem is reporting bias.

It is more likely people who get the rare (who are excited and happy i hope) will post than those who, after spending either far too much time/money, come up empty and just don't want to think about it. Then there are silly people who may say they got one (and didn't) which I suspect is larger than those who did get one but say they did not.

Math kinda flies away and roosts in the belfry of pseudo psychology.