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Witch drops
Posted: Sun Oct 12, 2014 4:27 am
by thebeast1221
Do the lvl 20 witches has a smaller chance of dropping a broom/glider/staff then a 90/130/190 witch or are the same chances or do the lvl 20 not even drop em? Thx in advance
Re: Witch drops
Posted: Sun Oct 12, 2014 4:38 am
by Olex
I'm wondering the same thing. Killed just over 300 witches and only pumpkins.
Re: Witch drops
Posted: Sun Oct 12, 2014 5:23 am
by thebeast1221
^ same killed 150 ish
Re: Witch drops
Posted: Mon Oct 13, 2014 4:40 pm
by thebeast1221
Anyone know
Re: Witch drops
Posted: Mon Oct 13, 2014 4:41 pm
by Strikingstorm
I got a 10% mount off a lvl 20
Re: Witch drops
Posted: Mon Oct 13, 2014 4:50 pm
by Plus3
I got a 10% mount off a lvl 20
Going off past events the odds are around one in a thousand. So if you kill one thousand you stand about a 70% chance of at least one.
Re: Witch drops
Posted: Mon Oct 13, 2014 8:01 pm
by Vulture
I got a 10% mount off a lvl 20
Going off past events the odds are around one in a thousand. So if you kill one thousand you stand about a 70% chance of at least one.
Uhh.. how did you come up with 70% lmao
Re: Witch drops
Posted: Mon Oct 13, 2014 8:50 pm
by Geebs
I've killed about 300 and gotten a 40% and a 10%. They both dropped from 20s. I have killed about 20 higher levels and gotten pumpkin bombs.
Re: Witch drops
Posted: Mon Oct 13, 2014 8:58 pm
by xvanguardx
Someone on our server got a 90% after about 150 kills
Re: Witch drops
Posted: Mon Oct 13, 2014 9:57 pm
by Plus3
I got a 10% mount off a lvl 20
Going off past events the odds are around one in a thousand. So if you kill one thousand you stand about a 70% chance of at least one.
Uhh.. how did you come up with 70% lmao
The binomial distribution theorem. The odds of at least one, given 1 in 1000 odds and 1000 tries are the sum of the odds of getting one plus the odds of getting two plus the odds of getting three plus the odds of getting 4 ... Up to the infinately small odds of getting 1000.
Now you may question the 1-1000 premise but the rest is actually simple mathematics proven through basic axioms.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution
The cumulative probability of at least one is around 73.58% for n tries with a 1/n probability.
http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx
For example you can determine the probability of at least one ensorcelled (or 2 or whatever you like) enter the probability of .01 for the odds (1%) then enter the number of tries and for fun the exact number of successes you are interested in.
So for example you may try 100 times. The odds of getting exactly one is 39% while the odds of getting 1+ is 73.58%.
Isn't math fun?