Celtic Heroes

Whew! alright everyone counts are in!

You all did great and collected 639 crowns! that's 6,390 presents! Give your self a round of applause .

Pink: 31.6% chance
Orange: 29.3%
Yellow: 18%
Green: 9.1%
Turquoise: 4.7%
Blue: 3.1%
Purple: 1.7%
White: 0.94%
Sparkly( seems to be even spread for each crown): 1.56% chance to get any sparkly, figures into 0.15% to get a specific sparkly, or roughly 667 crowns before you get the sparkly you want. *cough* white *cough* which is 6670 presents.
So you troll my original thread and create a duplicate thread and you come up with this crap? You said:
[quotum thanks for this but I willl make another better thread about this where we can get real data.[/q
I fail to see how this is even useful... You are just making up statistics on your own as well. There isn't a chance in hell that the sparkly crowns are same across the board. Nor is a 639 sample base even remotely accurate. You wouldn't be able to get realistic numbers unless you recorded a minimum of 10,000, which I knew would never happen. Yet again, you have trolled and failed. Next time you are going to troll someones thread, be able to back it up because these numbers are useless...[/q

Dude, maybe this was useful to me? How is it trolling? Keep your negative comments to urself

Well at a minimum his math is bad. If its a 1.56% chance at sparkly (probably not the same for each crown but whatever) and white is .94% then if they are independent events (again dubious) the math is .0156 x .0094 or .000147 or 1 in 6,800 chance requiring 68 THOUSAND gifts to get a 70.7% chance at at least ONE white sparkly. Given the number of white sparkles I think the events are not independent I'll leave it to another post to show a statistical basis.

He missed a decimal point and is unaware of statistical methods. But a rough count isn't bad for those that know math to make guesses. Although I'd say there is a bias to post if you have good drops and not to if you are browned off at all that work for a pile of junk crowns.

No lol you didn't read my post carefully. What I said is from our findings so far it seems like there is an even spread of sparkiling crowns. So according to that hypothesis if you do get a sparkling crown it is a 1/10 chance to get a white for instance.

Ok because you can read that as the odds of a sparkly crown has an even spread meaning that each crown has an equal% chance at being sparkly.

The op is not good at math in any case. As you said a larger sample size is needed in addition if the chance was indeed 1/10th of 1.56% then the needed number isn't 667. I suggest looking up 'binomial distribution' and picking a good online calculator to determine odds. It's entry level statistics.

Also gonna say again there will be a large bias since people with rare crowns are itching to post as undoubtedly some makin up stuff which is likely the rares. People who have some common ones are probably less likely to post.

I have 3 white and sparkling red orange yellow blue

Ok because you can read that as the odds of a sparkly crown has an even spread meaning that each crown has an equal% chance at being sparkly.

The op is not good at math in any case. As you said a larger sample size is needed in addition if the chance was indeed 1/10th of 1.56% then the needed number isn't 667. I suggest looking up 'binomial distribution' and picking a good online calculator to determine odds. It's entry level statistics.

Also gonna say again there will be a large bias since people with rare crowns are itching to post as undoubtedly some makin up stuff which is likely the rares. People who have some common ones are probably less likely to post.

Ok so you don't think 1/10th the chance of 1.53% is .153% 100/.153= ~666. If you want to post a bell curve and a confidence interval, be my guest lol. We are dealing with EXTREMELY rough data here, we have an n of almost zero for the sparkly crowns.

Also it depends on how the rolls are calculated. Your hypothesis seems to be each crown has a % chance of being sparkly. That is a valid hypothesis.

My hypopthesis based on the data is that their is a certain % chance for it to be sparkly, then it chooses a random crown to make sparkly. This seems to hold up from what I see in game as well as what is posted here because their aren't nearly as many sparkling pink to other color ratio's as there is of the non sparkly, but who knows. we need more data to figure that out.

Your right on the last point, that is why I made sure to say clearly, please don't say anything positive or negative about anyone's post, all we care about is everyone posts so we can calculate good odds.

I don't understand how a binomial calculator would help us.

I think its pretty straightforward to say that if their were 500 tries and we got 1, then every 500 tries you will probably get one in the future. That is exactly what my math is doing.