Celtic Heroes

Part of the problem is reporting bias.

It is more likely people who get the rare (who are excited and happy i hope) will post than those who, after spending either far too much time/money, come up empty and just don't want to think about it. Then there are silly people who may say they got one (and didn't) which I suspect is larger than those who did get one but say they did not.

Math kinda flies away and roosts in the belfry of pseudo psychology.

lol yes but we had a much more active forum life back then during the crown event and people did contribute even if they didn't get many sparkly. read through that post. even with potential reporting bias it was 1.56% so we are looking at about 1% odds.

Yea I was one who helped post info since I turned in so many.

I agree it's around 1% I just hadent turned in enough items in the last two events to have any certanity and didn't want to outright assume it stayed the same.

Ya but I don't think OTM would have any reason to change it. The best way to test for sure would be to buy 1000 red helms and see how many sparkly one gets, only costs 5000 silk. But not so sure I want to do that, might just aim to get as many whites as possible or sell the silk.

Ya but I don't think OTM would have any reason to change it. The best way to test for sure would be to buy 1000 red helms and see how many sparkly one gets, only costs 5000 silk. But not so sure I want to do that, might just aim to get as many whites as possible or sell the silk.

If you like math and are good with fashion prices you could assign a reasonable value to each rare color. You could then calculate the highest expected value for your silk. Having done this im assuming you are better off trying more of the mid range ones rather than blowing it all on a few whites with almost no chance of success.

You could almost neglect the fails as having any value because it is so hard to sell the plain ones even for very little money.

I'm not so good with fashion prices on my own world much less others.

My friend got a turquoise one on his 6th turquoise try.

On last event i got radiant turq mask on first try yet ive turned like 90 masks with no radiant red.

The way it works is if you keep turning in to try to get the ensorcelled headdress, you will never get it. The AI of the game is smart enough to detect the frustration of players and the more frustrated you are the less chance you get an ensorcelled item. I think this AI has a sadistic slant.

Why does OTM think that people will actually like or even wear these hidious hats?

We need polls on event hats already!

When the diadem hats were around i got sparkly black and sparkly white first try on both .... I shoulda played the lottery that day after seeing these odds lol

The way it works is if you keep turning in to try to get the ensorcelled headdress, you will never get it. The AI of the game is smart enough to detect the frustration of players and the more frustrated you are the less chance you get an ensorcelled item. I think this AI has a sadistic slant.

Lmafo and here I thought my character had a hidden bad luck stat. This actually makes far more sense!