Celtic Heroes

Expected value = N x P, where N is the number of trials and P is your probability of success.

The expected value is what people want to know. It answers the question: how many mounts should I have in my bag, on average, if I kill X witches?

What you're talking about is the probability that you will get exactly 1 mount. If the chance of getting 1 mount is X%, there is also Y% chance of getting 0 mounts, and Z% chance of getting 2 mounts, etc.

But when you combine all those % chances and values, you get the expected value.

Wrong im sorry to say.

The expected value is the most likely outcome which is the average for equal probability events.

Since the odds of getting 1 is better than 2 in the above cases (37%) 1 is the expected value. When I say at least one it's the odds of 1+2+3+...+100 (or 1000). That's what people really want to know.

It's phrased as so if i kill 1000 what are the odds i get at least one? Most dont realize its 73.58% and that there is a real chance 26.42% of total failure.

Wrong im sorry to say.

The expected value is the most likely outcome which is the average for equal probability events.

Since the odds of getting 1 is better than 2 in the above cases (37%) 1 is the expected value. When I say at least one it's the odds of 1+2+3+...+100 (or 1000). That's what people really want to know.

It's phrased as so if i kill 1000 what are the odds i get at least one? Most dont realize its 73.58% and that there is a real chance 26.42% of total failure.

I'm sorry but are you pulling these numbers out of your ass? I used your website you linked and here are the results.

I've killed over 500 and gotten nothing. Gosh, I love these events.

300+ or so for me. Nothin as well. But ima try anyway

^ Yes that is the chance of getting a mount every time you kill a witch.

I think they're talking about the chances of you ending up with at least one mount after killing 1000 or something.

Idk, but what I do know is it's not worth farming.

I always went off the assumption that your chances of successfully getting a .1 percent drop-- even if attempted 1000 times is still 100/1000 or .1?