Celtic Heroes

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Re: Bounty quests and sneaky secret patch

#11
Just as admin said there wasn't an intended change to xp :/

If there was sneaky patches I would let you know :lol: I write the announcement posts for any patches and I tell heroes everything that's going on :) plus I play the game so I like to know what's happening :lol:
Like the edl 4* drop rate patch, and the unox 5 patch, us players know it happened yet otm refuse to acknowledge it


A lot of this can just be rumour by players spreading, like players thinking they have worked out chest drop rates :lol: As with most mmos you just have to hope to the gods of rng :)

I like the bounties too though :) Think they are really fun to do and finding hunters remains means I get to explore :lol:
Bounties are great because of the excitement of getting elite or beltane ones. The xp great too if u get the elite. They certainly bring back some fun and excitement to the game. CH has come a long way since I started playing 4 years ago.

Re: Bounty quests and sneaky secret patch

#12
A lot of this can just be rumour by players spreading, like players thinking they have worked out chest drop rates :lol: As with most mmos you just have to hope to the gods of rng :)
Look man, I dont know about you, but RNGesus himself told me there is a 1/10000 chance of getting a horse.
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Re: Bounty quests and sneaky secret patch

#13
A lot of this can just be rumour by players spreading, like players thinking they have worked out chest drop rates :lol: As with most mmos you just have to hope to the gods of rng :)
Look man, I dont know about you, but RNGesus himself told me there is a 1/10000 chance of getting a horse.
It's not rocket science to work out chest drops, you simply need a large pool of them, say 500 to start to get an idea. A better number would be 5000 to include more rare ones. On the forum we did this with 500 and the value per chest with those is around 12k each on my world. It's statistics 101.

Second in past events I've done thousands of event mobs and never gotten even a 5% ride. Even pooling results with clannies. It was deemed likely that the odds were less than 1/1000 of getting one. So the 1/10k is believable.

With a large enough pool you could disprove with high certainty the lvl1 hypothesis empirically.

People might want to take an interest in math it's not just for breakfast anymore.
Last edited by Plus3 on Sat Aug 15, 2015 4:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Member of Aeon - Taranis - 24 boxer
220+ toons
Ravenleaf druid - Silverstring ranger
Stormsong warrior - Nwerb Mage - Eventide Rogue

Toon histogram:
Level_____|200+|150-199|100-149|50-99|20-49|1-19|
# of toons|_5__|___16___|____3___|__11__|__21_|407|

Re: Bounty quests and sneaky secret patch

#14
To get a more accurate representation of chest drop distribution you're gonna need at least 100,000. The drop rate of mythic is so low that if you open 10,000 there's still a good chance you get 0. I've opened 5000 chests since my first mount (not just mythic, this includes everything down to ancient) dating back to 2013, but that doesn't mean that mount drop rate is 0%
Level 220 mage- InnerCircle of Rhiannon
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Re: Bounty quests and sneaky secret patch

#15
i didnt notice extra xp but i am sick of sneaky patches, if otm is too afraid to tell us what they are doing its obviously something wrong and it shouldnt be happening.

Like the edl 4* drop rate patch, and the unox 5 patch, us players know it happened yet otm refuse to acknowledge it
+1.

In the past there have been many secret patches and it's so easy to confirm that. I'll give an example.

Chests.

Why is it that at the initial release of every event chests give amazing rewards. In the past ive personally opened 10-100 at each initial release of every event, and I often get great rewards. Afterwards though there's a patch to fix a "bug". After this patch, throughout the event I open a crapload more chests and get things no where near what I get at initial release. If this isn't the effects of a secret patch idk what is.
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Re: Bounty quests and sneaky secret patch

#16
To get a more accurate representation of chest drop distribution you're gonna need at least 100,000. The drop rate of mythic is so low that if you open 10,000 there's still a good chance you get 0. I've opened 5000 chests since my first mount (not just mythic, this includes everything down to ancient) dating back to 2013, but that doesn't mean that mount drop rate is 0%
To get 95% confidence of the odds on super rare items you may need 100k. However for the casual player you do not and further if these mounts sell for 3m and the odds are 1/10k (hence needing 100k) then they simply add 300g to the value of the chest on average, something that can be simply discarded.

So in short, for the casual buyer, you have simply said yourself through your own numbers the value to chests is irrelevant as it is close enough to zero for the value added that the overall expected value of a chest is not affected significantly.
Member of Aeon - Taranis - 24 boxer
220+ toons
Ravenleaf druid - Silverstring ranger
Stormsong warrior - Nwerb Mage - Eventide Rogue

Toon histogram:
Level_____|200+|150-199|100-149|50-99|20-49|1-19|
# of toons|_5__|___16___|____3___|__11__|__21_|407|

Re: Bounty quests and sneaky secret patch

#17
But it is. What if, instead of 0, I am expected to get 1 mythic 1 legendary and 2 primal mounts? That could be worth 10m, which averages out to 2k per chest. Which raises expected value of chests by a good 20 percent. That is a pretty significant difference imo, if you're trying to decide whether to open bulk chests or sell all
Level 220 mage- InnerCircle of Rhiannon
Necro, proteus, unox kills :D
http://www.celticheroes.net/profile.php?hero=runvs

Re: Bounty quests and sneaky secret patch

#18

Why is it that at the initial release of every event chests give amazing rewards. In the past ive personally opened 10-100 at each initial release of every event, and I often get great rewards. Afterwards though there's a patch to fix a "bug". After this patch, throughout the event I open a crapload more chests and get things no where near what I get at initial release. If this isn't the effects of a secret patch idk what is.
Well, as far as I know, there would have to be server downtime for a patch...so it can't really be secret. Plus with Muldar around, hopefully we will get the full info of what is changed :) how about it Muldar? Can you post a long detailed list of whatever OTM has tweaked, added, or removed after every patch? It would definitely help all the haters....

Also, the main reason there are more good stuff during the beginning of the event, is because there are more chests opened in the first week, than the rest of the event combined. So obviously, if the chest drop rate for something was like 1/100, and about 2000 chests were opened, there would be roughly 15-25 of those drops (because even if it is 1/100, doesnt mean that they have to be 99 chests apart). Then, if over the rest of the event, another 2000 chests are opened...there would still be the same 15-25 drops, but they would be spread out over a much larger period of time, so not as obvious.

It is understandable to be upset for having bad luck (I am the same way at times lol), but don't automatically blame OTM. I heard an analogy a while ago that went something like this:

There was once a million dollar lottery, and one month two different people, at two different times in the month, won it, (to everyones amazement). Then many of the people who bought hundreds of lottery tickets, but didn't win, went to the company to complain about not winning the random lottery.

Chests are the exact same, the drops are random, and when you buy chests, you shouldn't expect to win...no matter how many you buy. If something had a drop rate of 1/100, its possible for someone to open 99 chests, and have some other person open just one, and get the item...opening hundreds chests doesn't guaranteen that you will get good stuff, just that you have a better chance than others.
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Re: Bounty quests and sneaky secret patch

#19

Why is it that at the initial release of every event chests give amazing rewards. In the past ive personally opened 10-100 at each initial release of every event, and I often get great rewards. Afterwards though there's a patch to fix a "bug". After this patch, throughout the event I open a crapload more chests and get things no where near what I get at initial release. If this isn't the effects of a secret patch idk what is.
Well, as far as I know, there would have to be server downtime for a patch...so it can't really be secret. Plus with Muldar around, hopefully we will get the full info of what is changed :) how about it Muldar? Can you post a long detailed list of whatever OTM has tweaked, added, or removed after every patch? It would definitely help all the haters....

Also, the main reason there are more good stuff during the beginning of the event, is because there are more chests opened in the first week, than the rest of the event combined. So obviously, if the chest drop rate for something was like 1/100, and about 2000 chests were opened, there would be roughly 15-25 of those drops (because even if it is 1/100, doesnt mean that they have to be 99 chests apart). Then, if over the rest of the event, another 2000 chests are opened...there would still be the same 15-25 drops, but they would be spread out over a much larger period of time, so not as obvious.

It is understandable to be upset for having bad luck (I am the same way at times lol), but don't automatically blame OTM. I heard an analogy a while ago that went something like this:

There was once a million dollar lottery, and one month two different people, at two different times in the month, won it, (to everyones amazement). Then many of the people who bought hundreds of lottery tickets, but didn't win, went to the company to complain about not winning the random lottery.

Chests are the exact same, the drops are random, and when you buy chests, you shouldn't expect to win...no matter how many you buy. If something had a drop rate of 1/100, its possible for someone to open 99 chests, and have some other person open just one, and get the item...opening hundreds chests doesn't guaranteen that you will get good stuff, just that you have a better chance than others.
You, I like you ;) I write the announcements and what you see is what you get I'm afraid, no secrets :lol: The reason they are so short is cause that's all that goes in haha (Recent was Skain and Bounty Bugs) but yeah I agree whatever happens I will tell everyone :) I play too so I want to know everything too :lol:

You're right though :) it's all random numbers, why would we want to change it to less drops? haha It's fun to walk around Balor and see horses and tartan :)
And there is not one person sitting there all day selecting who will win like some people think :lol:

Re: Bounty quests and sneaky secret patch

#20
What are you talking sbout muldar?

Ive played the game since release and there is not ONCE. A patch note that sayss what you guys change?

Theres NEVER announcements about spawn time changes, ranger buffs werent even written in patch notes. Ive seen game changing things being changed with no notes. If there is any info it simply uses words like "raised". Or "lowered". , theres no actual numbers. And then the coding is usually bugged and had opposite effect but noone knows to look because there was no mention of th change in the first place. Then it takes 5. Mknths of us researching to make otm realize it.

U guys changed "animations" one time but left out any reference to the "animations" making your spells take 20% longer to cast and some spells you now have to wait for your spelltimer, THEN YOU WAVE YOUR HANDS IN THE AIR, THEN YOU FINALLY CAST THE SPELL. On the patch notes it said : we added new animations to many skills.


If thats not downright manipulation , idk what is....

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