Celtic Heroes

Take a stats class and you'll understand; it is due to sample size and low probabilities

Roll a die 600 times and you should get close to 100 of each number. Roll it 6 times and you are highly unlikely to get exactly one of each.

If the probability of each type of set was the same (unlikely, but for simplicity) 1/8 the drops would be bladeleaf. If the probability of an ammy is 1/6, there's about a 2 percent chance of getting a bladeleaf ammy on any given drop. So if you killed 50 times you'd expect to get 1. However, this does not mean you will actually get one. Since your probability is so low it may take 100, even 200.

Now if the distribution wasn't even and bladeleaf was actually only 1/15 and ammy was 1/8, it would take 550 drops for a 99% chance at a blade ammy.

Ur only making it worse for me.

Mini event was very nice for us, we got 4 blade and 1 blood necks during the weekend

I hate u.
How can odds be that one world gets almost only casters sets and one only melee sets, why cant it be more balanced?

Ik, melee sets drop rate can be frustrating. Hope you get a blade soon bro

^Thanks, I dont want for me, the one next in line didnt complete a gara set, I want either skain or my gara ammy to go to her.

We completed our second shrive set, yay!

No irons yet...

We have 14 spirit necks, 1 iron neck, 1 blade neck, 1 storm neck, and 1 stone neck.

Still no blood ammy to be seen in Danu ...and only two charms as well ..yet we have more spirit and stone sets than level 200 casters on entire server

Take a stats class and you'll understand; it is due to sample size and low probabilities

Now if the distribution wasn't even and bladeleaf was actually only 1/15 and ammy was 1/8, it would take 550 drops for a 99% chance at a blade ammy.

Not precisely correct sorry. These are called binomial distributions and you can either take a lengthy class and type forever into an old school calculator, misplace a - sign on the 34th calculation and get it wrong or use an online calculator like this one:
http://stattrek.com/m/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

If the odds really are 1/120 (0.0083333) then in 520 tries you would have a 5.6% chance of getting one ammy a 1.3% chance of getting no ammy and a 93% chance of getting more than one ammy. It's actually unlikely you would only get one.

It's a statistics 101 noob mistake to assume if you have 100 trials and 1% chance of success u stand a 50% chance of one success. It's actually around 73.6% chance of at least one.

Sorry you managed to misinterpret again; after 550 trials with those odds there is about a 1% chance of still not getting a blade ammy. Aka, there is a 99% chance of getting at least 1 blade ammy

Take a stats class and you'll understand; it is due to sample size and low probabilities

Now if the distribution wasn't even and bladeleaf was actually only 1/15 and ammy was 1/8, it would take 550 drops for a 99% chance at a blade ammy.

Not precisely correct sorry. These are called binomial distributions and you can either take a lengthy class and type forever into an old school calculator, misplace a - sign on the 34th calculation and get it wrong or use an online calculator like this one:
http://stattrek.com/m/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

If the odds really are 1/120 (0.0083333) then in 520 tries you would have a 5.6% chance of getting one ammy a 1.3% chance of getting no ammy and a 93% chance of getting more than one ammy. It's actually unlikely you would only get one.

It's a statistics 101 noob mistake to assume if you have 100 trials and 1% chance of success u stand a 50% chance of one success. It's actually around 73.6% chance of at least one.

That's pretty much what he said, 550 trials for a 99% chance